Return to normal?

There is no question that Covid has disrupted the status quo in education. Schools have had to adapt to new challenges about how we deliver our programmes, how we support student wellbeing, how we assess and a whole lot more. Across the country and across the world, different populations, people and families have all been affected differently too, whether it is due to days, weeks or months of lockdown, extended periods of illness, or the financial ramifications of covid exacerbating inequity even further. However, when speaking to many of my teaching colleagues, they frequently identify that perhaps one of the biggest challenges, if not the biggest challenge that we have faced as a result of Covid, is the large amount of uncertainty that covid has introduced.

One might argue that for some time now, in many contexts, teaching has involved large degrees of certainty. We have steady salaries and steady timetables. We are able to make assessment plans and exam timetables because of the certainty we have in our routines. We have been able to plan ahead because we knew what to anticipate from year to year. In fact, many of us even plan our bathroom breaks ahead of time because we know where those busy blocks in our week are! While schools often bring in new changes and initiatives, these are usually cumulative small changes over time, rather than distinct disruptions that result in sudden systemic or radical change. We might have a new open-plan building, new curriculums, try new pedagogies, but students still came to school five days a week. Student to teacher ratios stayed similar, assessments were carried out in fairly similar ways. (Think first order vs. second order change - "First order change relies upon step-by-step incremental learning, expansively building upon previous capabilities while simultaneously modifying what has been learned before. In contrast, second order change demands fundamental shifts in students' thinking, a reframing of previous learning which serves as a springboard for a transformation to new levels of comprehension" (source).

Nek minute...* Covid happened.

Some schools had months of operating online. Schools that were still device free at the start of 2020, suddenly had to start teaching and learning online completely, for weeks (if not months) on end. Assessments that were usually done in class, often under test conditions, suddenly had to be done from home, on a device. Students used to come to school 5 days a week for about 40 weeks of the year. Yet for some Auckland students, they had no school on-site from August 2021 right through to the start of February 2022. Some of us went to sleep one night and woke up the next morning to find that while we slept, we entered another snap lockdown and there would be no school for the next week. Even school holidays were moved suddenly. 

Of course, this doesn't even touch on the degree of uncertainty in our personal lives. There is the constant question of will I or won't I get covid? Will my loved ones and I be okay if we do get covid? Can my family financial support ourselves with such rapid increases in the cost of living? Does my incredibly mild sore throat mean I should stay home, or that I just talked too much with my mask on? Taken together, for many of us this uncertainty seems to have led to more stress and anxiety. In fact, there is research that has shown links between uncertainty and mental health outcomes. 

While the uncertainty generated from covid has in some cases felt novel after such long periods of stability in many parts of the world, experts have long called our attention to an increase in VUCA, that is an increase in volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity in the world. In the last few years we have seen everything from the current situation in the Ukraine and the fear around nuclear escalation, the election of Trump and consequent capitol riots, Brexit, and even an increased numbers of natural disasters. This doesn't even begin to touch on the uncertainty generated from climate change that will only increase if we remain on our current trajectory - increased risk of additional pandemics and diseases, increases in food scarcity, loss of land leading to escalated conflicts about land, climate refugees, more natural disasters, etc. 

As we navigate this uncertainty, I keep hearing myself and others talk about "when things are back to normal...".  And despite hearing myself and others talk about the "new normal",  I can't hep but wonder if either subconsciously or consciously, we are waiting for things to return to a "normal" closer to what we were used to? Are we waiting for a return to the predictability that we had gotten so used to? I know that I have caught myself in this particular waiting around mindset a few times. 

However, I think it is time that we ask ourselves; just how useful is it to be waiting around for the 'old normal' to return?

• Many times I have caught myself thinking "when things are back to (old) normal, I will...[insert designated activity, plan, etc.]". Unfortunately, I suspect that that the constant postponing and waiting for things to be able to happen 'as normal', leaves me with a greater sense of uncertainty. Some things definitely needs to be postponed, concerts, international travel, etc. And some things that keep being postponed is definitely beyond my circle of influence. However, I have noticed that the "when things are back to (old) normal, I will..." thinking is often an excuse for postponing something that I find difficult, uncomfortable, frustrating, boring, and so forth. Other times, I have found that my postponing is an excuse for not being willing to do the mental work of rethinking an activity - how could we change this activity to make it feasible in our current conditions? 
  
  
• Next, in the "old normal", many of us had stability, predictability and routines that made use feel safe and secure, financially, emotionally, physically, etc. However for many people, the 'old normal' sucked too. Long before Covid came along, we have been surrounded by racism, poverty domestic abuse and epidemics of mental health. While the "old normal"  might have been a comfortable place for myself and my immediate family, this is definitely not the case for large parts of our population. So it is only right to ask myself whether my wish for a return to "old normal" is really preferable to a wish to move to a "new normal" that might be better than the old? In other words, perhaps I need to stop wishing for things to go back to how they were, and instead wish for things to be radically improved in a new normal?
  
  
• Third, yet perhaps the most important question I have been asking myself... What opportunities am I missing by waiting for a return to (old) normal? There is a tendency for complex systems to maintain their momentum along a particular path until sufficiently disrupted by competing phenomenon. One might argue that schools and the education system is enmeshed in significant amounts of system momentum - while there are small fluctuations, mutations, disruptions, etc. these rarely change the whole system. Just think about the LONG list of school and education initiatives that have been discontinued, rather than becoming fully embedded and changing the way the system operates. For example, there is overwhelming evidence that our education systems are not equitable and in many places, racist. There are numerous initiatives to address this, yet gaining sufficient momentum within these initiatives to overhaul the whole system often seems an insurmountable task. Covid has managed to disrupt numerous systems at various levels. So while I could focus on "when things are back to normal...", I wonder how instead we might focus on what opportunities for radical change has been created through large scale system disruption?
  
  
• Following on from thinking about opportunities created by disruption and uncertainty, I have to wonder, are we just making things harder on ourselves by waiting for things to go back to the 'old normal'? By waiting around in limbo, are we stopping ourselves from truly adapting to our 'new normal' because subconsciously (or consciously) we are still waiting for things to return to the stability we were used to? Perhaps it's like a breakup? If we are still waiting around for and ex partner to change so that we can be better together, we stop yourself from really being available and open to finding better possibilities with a new partner. 

In summary, when I consider how often I have found myself thinking about a return to normal as I navigated the uncertainty brought about by covid, I have also had to question my capabilities for managing this uncertainty. What skills and habits do I need to develop further to better cope, and perhaps thrive in uncertainty? What opportunities can be found in uncertainty? 

I'm curious, have you experienced this 'return to normal' bias? 

*If you are not familiar with 'nek minute', it's a New Zealand thing. It just means next minute.

"...the only definite outcome is uncertainty"

The only thing we do know about the future is that is is uncertain. It surprises us. In our own lives and society, we know that unexpected challenges, problems and opportunities arrive. People and society is faced with everything from poverty and abuse to ISIS, climate change and natural disasters such as earthquakes and tornados. This doesn't even begin to talk about the uncertainty that we have about where technology will take us next. If for just one day, you were not allowed to use any technology that was invented in the last 15 years, what would your day look like? There would be no Facebook, no iPhone, so I would actually have to take a GPS with me. There would be no Netflix. Wait, there would be no YouTube. There would be no Wikipedia. Things are getting serious now. I would probably have to listen to a CD - oh the limitations to my playlist size! Scrutinise any part of your day, and you will notice the enormous influence that technology has had on our lives. Would we have been able to predict twenty years ago just how great the role of technology in our lives would be? You could try and argue with me, but if you just think about how many power outlet points there are in any given room in a house built this year compared to a house built twenty years ago...

"When contradictions, complexity and chaos
 combine with accelerating change the only
definite outcome is uncertainty"

Ziauddin Sardar sums up the ideas of uncertainty and complexity in today's day and age beautifully in his must read article, Welcome to the postnormal times; "When contradictions, complexity and chaos combine with accelerating change the only definite outcome is uncertainty"

It seems strange that the only thing we really do know about the future, is that it is riddled with uncertainty. Yet, in schools we seem to do little about preparing students for uncertainty. Instead, we give students timetables to tell them where to be every minute of their day. We tell them the learning objective at the start of the lesson so that they know what to expect and what to learn. We teach to a test or assessments, and we get upset if the questions surprise us. As teachers, we prepare our lessons, plan them out. In fact, how many schools and departments have the planning for the whole year ahead laid out, bit by bit? We are available to help students out when they get stuck. We tell student which strategies to use, what books to read and what thoughts to think. Before students learn to think about uncertain student finances, babies and children, political instability, we ask them what they want to be when they grow up. Then we ask them to make enormous investments in degrees that may or may not be useful as the market is too uncertain to know what will actually be useful. We help students believe that they just need to stick to the plan, and the all will be OK. There is no shortage of articles and research available about the disjoints between education and the workforce, both at a school and higher education level. Is it just me, or are the things that we teach, the ways we teach, actually doing the complete opposite of preparing students for coping with the unexpected and uncertain? And that's without getting me started on the helicopter parents!

I often hear teachers and parents talk about preparing students for the future. However I wonder if we have really thought about what this means. Does it mean teaching and learning of Shakespeare and Pythagoras as we have always done? But much like the economic ideas of continuous growth, that we perhaps try to do it better? Does it mean that we teach students coding and robotics? Perhaps it means that our schools should teach with devices, type those essays on Google Docs? Perhaps even collaborating on a Google Doc? Does it mean that we focus on things such as collaboration, problem solving, creativity, innovation?

So what then does teaching for and with uncertainty look like? It seems fitting that I am uncertain! However, my current approach to uncertainty involves rapid iteration and deep reflection. Hence, here are some of the things that I have tested and tried with various levels of success over the past year:

• Design Thinking, the Scientific Method and PPDAC: You might wonder what these two have in common... As I see it, Design Thinking, the Scientific Method and PPDAC are problem solving approaches. Where Design Thinking uses empathy to solve problems, science and maths uses objectivity to solve problems. By teaching using these (and other) approaches side by side, I hope that my students begin to understand processes of problem solving, rather than simply looking for an answer. I hope that they learn to distinguish between the pros and cons of problem solving approaches, and learn to apply each approach accordingly. Or perhaps even to mix approaches when the moment is right.  In class, we explicitly discuss problems together and talk about what the best problem solving approach might be. 
• When teaching maths in particular, sometimes I give impossible problems. Problems that can not be solved because I did not give enough information. Or sometimes I give problems with too much information. Sometimes I give problems that I have not yet taught the skills for. These problems are usually followed by reflections where we discuss our responses to uncertainty. Some of us get defensive, some of us act like we know when in fact we don't (and then sound very ignorant!), some of us simply give up, get distracted or even get angry. We talk about what might have been a better approach. We talk about what we could have done, alternative approaches. 
• For some time now, I have also been an a fan of programmes such as Art Costa's Habits of Mind. This approach gives students strategies for 'knowing what to do when you don't know what to do'. It enables students to coach themselves through challenges by having strategies to draw on when they don't know what to do. 
• Simulations: This year I was fortunate enough to co-teach with Steve Mouldey. Together, we ran an alien planet invasion simulation in class where students had to make decisions for themselves in a highly complex environment. This meant that students had to deal with real uncertainty and complexity on the fly. Without a doubt, this was some of the most powerful learning I have ever seen for a group of students. You can read more about this simulation here. 

Of course, as most of my experiments in the classroom goes, they only raise more questions...

• If schools valued the ability to cope and thrive in uncertainty, would they want to measure it? How would it be measured?
• What other approaches could I try to help my students cope and thrive in uncertainty? What does best practice for teaching and learning with uncertainty look like? Can there even be best practice for uncertainty?
• How do my students feel about uncertainty? Do they feel as uncomfortable 'not knowing' as the adults?
• Are teachers able and willing to work in a space where they don't 'know', a space where they too are uncertain? Are teachers able to challenge and redefine their identity as the one who 'knows' the answer? 
• Why is uncertainty so uncomfortable? Why is uncertainty often associated with the negative rather than the positive? 
• Is it foolish to be/act certain about the future?

With so many more questions, it would appear the the only thing I am certain about is that uncertainty is a key to thinking about Education Futures. Perhaps you are more certain than I? How do you think we might prepare students for a society fundamentally different than ours, so different that we can not know what to prepare them for? How do you think we might prepare students for uncertainty? Or perhaps, you think we shouldn't?